Spring 2025 has brought energy challenges into sharp focus – not just for Ukraine, but across the European continent. The mass blackout on the Iberian Peninsula, which left Spain, Portugal, and Andorra without power, served as yet another wake-up call: the transition to renewable energy isn’t just about climate – it’s about systemic security.
In Ukraine, this transition unfolds against the backdrop of war – amid shelling, destroyed generation capacity, a debt crisis and flawed regulatory policies. Yet despite everything, wind and solar are gradually rewriting the nation’s energy DNA. But can the country harness their full potential?
After Spain’s blackout: a warning or an excuse?
On April 28, Europe reminded the world that green energy is a complex technical system, not just a set of solar panels. In Spain, over 15 GW of capacity «disappeared» from the grid in just five minutes.
And although the official cause of the incident has not yet been determined, experts acknowledge that the issue was likely related to solar generation. On the day of the outage, solar power was supplying up to 60% of the grid’s demand.
The Iberian case proves that relying solely on wind and solar power is unsustainable without flexible backup capacity and integration with other countries.
Spain has only a 2-3% interconnection capacity with the rest of Europe, despite its total power system capacity of 129 GW. In a critical situation, this makes it impossible «to draw» emergency reserves from external sources.
And while renewable energy sources themselves are not to blame for the blackout, the Spanish incident has become a compelling argument in the ongoing debate: are we rushing the green transition too fast?
Ukrainian context: the war has changed the rules of the game
However, for Ukraine, green recovery is no longer a choice but a necessity. Over three years of war, up to 85% of thermal generation capacity has been lost or damaged. Dozens of thermal power plants (TPPs) have been destroyed, while some of the country’s largest solar (SES) and wind (WES) farms remain under occupation. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which once supplied a quarter of Ukraine’s electricity, is still under russian control.
Yet even under these conditions, green energy in Ukraine continues to grow. Solar power already accounts for over 5% of the country’s energy mix, with wind contributing around 2%.
While these figures may seem modest, the pace of development is remarkable. Ukraine has achieved a world first by constructing a wind farm in direct proximity to active combat zones in Mykolaiv region. Meanwhile, in Zakarpattia, plans are underway for a 1.5 GW renewable energy project.
Solar power: costly but rapid to deploy
In response to the large-scale destruction in 2022–2023, the government has committed to accelerating the development of solar power. The goal is to launch 11 GW of new solar generation by 2030 — but there are complications.
Firstly, most high-potential areas (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk regions) remain under occupation.
Secondly, the economics of solar power plants are quite complex. A 1 MW station costs between $500,000 and $700,000, with a payback period of around 10 years. Under Ukrainian lending rates of up to 25%, such projects become financially burdensome. This is not to mention the need for insurance, cooling, cleaning from dust and snow, and protection against drones.
In other words, solar power is a quick solution — but only under conditions of a stable market, secure logistics, and investor confidence.
Wind energy in Ukraine is not just about potential—it’s also a field of conflict. The largest infrastructure project in Zakarpattia (1.5 GW) has faced strong opposition from environmental activists and local residents.
Part of the land designated for the wind farm construction falls within the Emerald Network sites and the old-growth forests of the Carpathians. Due to unauthorized logging (including the destruction of over 100 trees aged 200 years or older) and road construction without an EIA (environmental impact assessment), at least two criminal cases have already been initiated. A full-blown environmental scandal.
The conclusion is clear: even green energy can become destructive when lacking a professional approach, the ability to consider all factors, and basic integrity.
Foreign investors: the money is there, but trust is needed
Alongside technical challenges, financial issues persist. Due to unpaid «green tariff» debts (approximately UAH 22 billion), banks are now mass-refusing to finance new projects. Market players openly state: the government has failed to create a debt repayment plan, while investors demand transparent rules of the game.
There is good news as well. The European Commission, together with financial institutions, is launching a Green Energy Support Fund for Ukraine that will cover market risks.
The Ukrainian Parliament has registered Draft Law No. 13219 «On Amendments to Certain Laws of Ukraine Regarding Improvement of Competitive Conditions for Electricity Production from Alternative Energy Sources». The legislation introduces new incentives for «green energy» auctions and provides for the integration of energy storage systems.
However, this is still insufficient at present.
A strategic approach is needed — not fanaticism
In reality, Spain’s blackout has taught Ukraine nothing so far, and similar scenarios are entirely possible here. We lack sufficient reserve capacity, the market is «oversaturated» with manual regulation, and energy storage systems are only just being implemented.
At the same time, war imposes hard priorities. Energy policy must be based on diversification and the understanding that green energy is not dogma – just one tool among many.
Key priorities for aligning green energy with Ukraine’s interests (rather than working «against» them):
- Diversify generation sources: Avoid overreliance on solar/wind alone by developing gas and bioenergy capacity, retaining coal as backup, and accelerating deployment of new nuclear units.
- Implement an effective energy storage policy: Support storage projects (including P2G/G2P technologies) and integrate storage systems into the balancing market.
P2G (Power-to-Gas) – the conversion of electricity (primarily from renewable sources) into gas (most commonly hydrogen or methane). G2P (Gas-to-Power) – the reverse process: combusting this gas to generate electricity when needed. This enables storage of surplus solar/wind energy as gas, utilization during capacity shortages or peak demand, while enhancing grid flexibility and reducing fossil fuel dependence.
- Develop Regional Energy Infrastructure: reduce dependence on centralized grid hubs by incentivizing decentralized generation at municipal and enterprise levels.
- Establish Predictable Financial Frameworks: legislate solutions for green tariff debt repayment, create investor risk insurance via dedicated funds, expand transparent green auctions with clear capacity quotas.
- Strengthen Environmental Oversight: ban construction without EIAs (environmental impact assessments), prohibit development in protected areas without full public consultation.
- Accelerate EU Energy Integration: expand interconnectors with European markets, secure EU recognition for Ukrainian renewable energy certificates («Guarantees of Origin»).
Risks must not be ignored—they must be calculated. Forecasts shouldn’t just be made; they must shape policy. Otherwise, we too may face that same «Spanish syndrome»: when the sun shines and the wind blows—but the lights stay off.
Article author: Vadym Lytvynenko, Executive Director of NVP «ENERGO-PLUS» LLC
Source: thepage.ua portal
