The start of the new heating season is accompanied not only by weather forecasts but also by increasingly frequent warnings about the possibility of rolling power outages.
The familiar term “power restriction schedules” has once again begun to appear in the media, public commentary, and social media. Why is this happening, what lies behind the warnings issued by energy sector experts, and how real are the risks?
A Damaged Energy System: The Scale of Losses and the Challenges of Recovery
Ukraine’s energy system is entering another winter season following the unprecedented destruction sustained during 2023–2024.
Despite the extraordinary efforts of repair crews and strong support from international partners, the restoration of large-scale generation capacity has progressed slowly. According to Ukraine’s transmission system operator, peak capacity shortages exceeded 35% of the country’s electricity demand during periods of highest system stress in 2025.
Many energy facilities require extensive modernization or the replacement of critical equipment manufactured to project-specific specifications, which involves extended manufacturing and delivery lead times. The scale of these losses cannot be compensated for through emergency repairs alone. The power system remains in a state of continuous operational balancing, with supply and demand maintained at the limits of system capability.
It should be noted that up to 10 GW of power generation capacity, including thermal power plants and hydropower plants, has been destroyed or severely damaged. For example, approximately 90% of the thermal generation capacity operated by DTEK has been put out of service, while the hydropower sector has also sustained extensive damage. Overall, more than 45% of hydropower generation capacity has been affected by attacks.
Both critical energy infrastructure—including substations, transformers, and high-voltage transmission lines—and power generation assets remain under continuous attack. Repeated strikes on the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant during ongoing restoration works underscore the persistent threat facing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and the challenges of restoring generation capacity.
The Psychological Factor: Warnings as a Tool for Preparedness
Public communications from the energy sector are increasingly characterized by phrases such as “we are issuing a warning,” “there is a possibility,” and “if necessary.” These messages should not be interpreted as a sign of panic but rather as a preparedness tool designed to help the public anticipate and respond to potential disruptions.
Forecasting electricity demand and assessing power system conditions is a continuous and dynamic process. System conditions may change from day to day depending on ambient temperatures, the intensity of attacks, equipment failures, and fuel stock levels.
Warnings do not necessarily mean that power outages are inevitable. Rather, they enable households, businesses, and local authorities to prepare for potential scenarios.
Meanwhile, on September 15, Ukrenergo stated that it is currently restoring damaged equipment and replenishing spare parts inventories to ensure readiness for any repairs that may be required. In the absence of sustained large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure, Ukraine is expected to be able to navigate the winter season without the need for electricity consumption restrictions.
Accordingly, discussions of potential power outage schedules, risk areas, and emergency response scenarios are not speculative. They constitute an integral part of realistic contingency planning under conditions of uncertainty — planning in which the energy sector, local authorities, businesses, and international partners are all actively engaged.
Seasonal Demand: Why Warnings Are Being Issued Now
The start of the heating season is traditionally accompanied by an increase in electricity demand, primarily due to the increased use of electric space heaters and electric boilers. Even in peacetime, the period from November to February represented the most demanding time for the power system. Under current wartime conditions and with critical infrastructure damaged, the risks have increased significantly.
During the summer period, solar generation helped reduce pressure on the power system, covering up to 10–15% of electricity demand during peak daylight hours. However, with shorter daylight hours and changing weather conditions, this share declines. In addition, the need for flexible generation capacity increases, as these resources can be rapidly dispatched or taken offline to respond to supply shortages. Ukraine currently has only limited flexible generation capacity.
Key risks during the autumn–winter season:
- Generation capacity shortages during peak demand periods (morning and evening peaks).
- Insufficient flexible generation capacity to maintain power system balance.
- Limitations on electricity imports due to technical infrastructure constraints.
- Attacks on substations and transmission lines, posing a risk of reduced power transmission capacity.
- Uneven access to electricity across different regions.
For this reason, energy companies are already reminding consumers of the importance of conserving electricity and warning that consumption restrictions may be introduced if necessary.
Shared Responsibility: The Roles of the Market and the State
The challenge of power outages extends beyond technical considerations and reflects broader institutional issues. Ukraine has yet to adopt a comprehensive long-term energy strategy to guide the development and modernization of its energy sector. While crisis management measures have proven effective, a coherent long-term strategic vision is still lacking — one that defines how to restore a balanced generation mix, reduce system vulnerability, and ensure stable and sustainable electricity tariffs.
At the same time, businesses and local communities are assuming greater responsibility for strengthening their own energy resilience. Over the past year, investment in distributed generation has accelerated, with small-scale solar photovoltaic installations and wind turbines increasingly being deployed on the rooftops of manufacturing facilities and logistics hubs. Battery energy storage systems are being deployed, and electricity networks are being modernized.
This marks a new phase in the sector’s evolution, in which market participants are responding more rapidly than the regulatory framework can adapt. However, without sustained government support and a predictable policy environment, these efforts cannot offset losses on a nationwide scale.
Stabilizing the Power System: Key Market Initiatives
Despite the challenges and ongoing threats, the energy sector has remained proactive. In 2025, activity has accelerated across several key areas.
Expansion of distributed generation. Small-scale combined heat and power (CHP) units, gas engine power plants, and biogas facilities are helping reduce the load on the power grid while providing additional reserve capacity.
Investment in renewable energy. Despite outstanding payment obligations to renewable energy producers, investors continue to develop new projects, particularly in the western regions of Ukraine. In some communities, local solar photovoltaic installations are being commissioned to provide electricity to critical social infrastructure.
Overall, since 2022, renewable energy has emerged as the primary driver of decentralized power generation. However, russia’s aggression and the attacks on energy infrastructure in 2024 exposed the vulnerability of this model. The wind power sector, in particular, was severely affected.
A total of 1,947 MW of wind power capacity has been commissioned in Ukraine. Of this capacity, 40 MW has been destroyed or damaged, while approximately 1,300 MW is located in temporarily occupied territories.
An additional 200 MW of wind power capacity is expected to be commissioned in 2025, with a further 4 GW projected to be installed by 2030. Overall, Ukraine’s technical potential for wind power development is estimated at 100–150 GW of installed capacity.
Deployment of energy storage systems. The early deployment of battery energy storage systems (BESS) demonstrates their potential for peak shaving and peak load management. However, their installed capacity remains limited, amounting to just 17.4 MW, despite grid connection technical specifications having been issued for approximately 3 GW of capacity.
Development of microgrids and energy communities. Local initiatives aimed at strengthening energy independence are gaining momentum. These initiatives involve the development of microgrids for schools, hospitals, and water utilities, providing a reliable source of electricity even in the event of disruptions to the centralized power supply.
What Businesses Can Do Today
Current realities are compelling businesses to assume greater responsibility for their own energy resilience.
The following measures can help minimize energy-related risks:
- Conduct a risk assessment and energy audit: assess energy consumption patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and evaluate backup and contingency scenarios.
- Local generation: installation of solar power plants (SPP), biogas plants, and gas piston power stations / gas engine generating units.
- Energy storage systems: investment in battery storage assets for peak load stabilization.
- Integration into microgrids: creation of “resilience islands” in cooperation with other enterprises or communities.
- Scenario planning: preparation for operation under outage conditions – coordinated system switching, personnel training, and contractual mechanisms with energy suppliers.
Balancing Preparedness and Action
Discussing the possibility of outages is not intimidation, but responsible communication. Energy workers are fulfilling their part of the work — restoring, upgrading, and preparing for the winter season. However, the level of resilience also depends on consumers.
Existing experience shows: where system flexibility, business proactivity, and conscious consumption are combined, the system withstands. We cannot guarantee that the lights will stay on throughout this winter. But we can do everything in our power to ensure that even in darkness, we act with confidence and responsibility.
Therefore, warnings about outages are not solely about capacity shortages. They are about a new reality in which energy security is an integral part of national security. The risks of delaying decisions are already clear. The time to act is now.
Author: Vadym Lytvynenko, Executive Director of NVP «ENERGO-PLUS» LLC
Source: The Page portal
