The start of the new heating season is accompanied not only by weather forecasts but also by increasingly frequent statements about possible rolling blackouts.
In the media, public comments and social networks, the familiar phrase «shedding schedules» is appearing again. Why is this happening, what is behind the energy companies warnings, and how real are the risks?
Destroyed system: the scale of losses and the challenges of restoration
The Ukrainian energy system is entering another winter season following the unprecedented destruction of 2023-2024.
Despite the heroic efforts of repair crews and donor support, the restoration of large-scale generation is progressing slowly – according to «Ukrenergo», during peak periods in 2025, the power deficit reached over 35% of the country’s needs.
Some facilities require deep modernization or replacement of equipment, which is manufactured to individual specifications and has long lead times. These losses cannot be compensated for by emergency repairs alone; the system is operating in a state of constant balance on the edge.
It is important to remember that up to 10 GW of generating capacity – thermal and hydroelectric power plants – has been destroyed or significantly damaged. So, about 90% of DTEK’s thermal power generation was disabled and hydro generation was significantly damaged – overall, over 45% of the capacity came under attack.
Both energy infrastructure (substations, transformers, high-voltage power lines) and generation itself continue to be under constant attack. The fact that there have been repeated attacks on the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, despite ongoing recovery work, only serves to prove this.
The psychological factor: warnings as a preparation tool
In the communications of energy companies, words such as «we are warning», «it is possible» and «if needed» are being heard with increasing frequency. This is not a sign of panic, but rather a tool for preparation.
Forecasting energy consumption and the state of the power system is a dynamic process. The situation can change daily depending on temperature, the intensity of shelling, technical failures or the status of fuel reserves.
Warnings do not mean guaranteed power outages, but they allow the public, businesses and local authorities to prepare for possible scenarios.
At the same time, on September 15, the company «Ukrenergo» stated that the restoration of damaged equipment and the replenishment of supplies for possible repairs are currently ongoing. Provided there are no systematic attacks on energy facilities, the country is capable of getting through the winter season without restrictions on electricity consumption.
Therefore, discussing blackout schedules, risk zones and emergency aid deployment scenarios is not speculation. This is part of realistic planning under uncertainty — scenarios that energy companies, local authorities, businesses and international partners are preparing for.
Seasonal load: why are the warnings being issued now
The beginning of the cold season is traditionally accompanied by a growth in electricity consumption, notably through the use of heaters and electric boilers. Even in peacetime, the period from November to February was the most challenging for the system. Now, however, in wartime conditions and with damaged infrastructure, the risks have multiplied.
During the summer, the situation was partially alleviated by solar power, which at peak hours covered up to 10-15% of the demand. However, with the shorter daylight hours and weather factors, this share is decreasing. Furthermore, the need for dispatchable generation capacity – that is, capacity that can be started up and shut down quickly in case of a shortage is growing. Ukraine has a shortage of such capacity.
The main risks for the autumn-winter period are:
- A generation deficit during peak hours (morning and evening).
- A shortage of dispatchable capacity for balancing the grid.
- Limited import opportunities due to technical infrastructure constraints.
- Attacks on substations and power lines, threatening power transmission capacity
- Disparities in electricity access across different regions.
Therefore, energy companies are already reminding consumers about the importance of saving electricity and the potential introduction of restrictions.
The question of responsibility: the market and the state
The issue of blackouts is not only technical but also institutional in nature. Ukraine still lacks an approved long-term energy strategy. And although crisis management is functioning effectively, a strategic vision – on how to restore the generation balance, reduce vulnerability and ensure stable tariffs – is still lacking.
At the same time, businesses and communities are beginning to take responsibility for their energy independence. Over the past year, the number of distributed generation projects has increased sharply; small solar power plants and wind turbines are appearing on the roofs of factories and logistics hubs. Energy storage systems are being installed and grids are being modernized.
This is a sign of a new phase: one where the market is moving faster than the regulator. However, without state support and predictable policies, this approach cannot compensate for the losses on a national scale.
What is being done to stabilize the situation: the market’s key steps
Against a backdrop of threats and challenges, the energy sector is not remaining idle. The year 2025 has seen increased activity in several areas.
The deployment of distributed generation. Small-scale cogeneration units, gas piston power plants and biogas complexes – all of this helps to relieve the grid and create additional reserves.
Investments in renewable energy. Despite the debt issues facing renewable energy sources, investors continue to roll out new projects, particularly in the western regions. In some communities, local solar power plants are being launched to power social infrastructure.
Overall, after 2022, renewable energy became the main hope for decentralizing power generation. However, the russian aggression and attacks in 2024 demonstrated the vulnerability of this model. The wind power sector was hit particularly hard.
A total of 1,947 MW of wind power capacity has been commissioned in Ukraine. Of this, 40 MW have been destroyed or damaged, and 1,300 MW are located in the occupied territories.
At the same time, 200 MW of new wind farms will be commissioned in 2025, with an additional 4 GW expected to be installed by 2030. Overall, the potential for wind farm development in Ukraine is estimated at 100-150 GW of installed capacity.
The use of energy storage. The initial stages of developing Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) demonstrate their potential for peak shaving. However, their current capacity is still insignificant – only 17.4 MW, compared to technical specifications issued for 3 GW.
The development of microgrids and energy communities. Local initiatives for energy independence are gaining momentum. This involves creating microgrids for schools, hospitals and water utilities – with a guaranteed power source even in the absence of centralized supply.
What a business can do right now
Current realities are forcing businesses to take on greater responsibility for energy resilience.
Here are several steps that can minimize risks:
- Risk assessment and energy audit: analyze energy consumption, identify vulnerabilities and develop backup scenarios.
- Local power generation: install solar power plants (SPP), biogas units and gas piston power stations.
- Energy storage systems: invest in batteries to stabilize peak loads.
- Integration into microgrids: create «resilience islands» in cooperation with other businesses or communities.
- Scenario planning: prepare for operation during blackouts through coordinated system switching, staff training and contractual mechanisms with energy suppliers.
The balance between warning and action
Discussing the possibility of power outages is not fearmongering; it is responsible communication. Energy companies are doing their part – repairing, modernizing and preparing for winter. However, the level of resilience also depends on consumers.
Existing experience shows: systems prove resilient where flexibility, proactive business and conscious consumption converge. We cannot guarantee there will always be power this winter. But we can do our utmost to act with confidence and responsibility even in the darkness.
Therefore, warnings about power outages are not just about a capacity shortage. They are about a new reality in which energy security is part of the country’s overall security. The risks of delaying decisions are already understood. The time to act is now.
Author: Vadym Lytvynenko, Executive Director of NVP «ENERGO-PLUS» LLC
Source: The Page portal
