Over the past three years of full-scale war, our energy system has gone through trials unprecedented in global history. From targeted strikes on critical infrastructure and the occupation of strategic energy facilities to attempts to destabilize the energy market: these have become integral elements of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
However, despite massive destruction, the energy sector of Ukraine has not only withstood the pressure but has also adapted to new challenges. Today, it is crucial to assess how the industry has survived under wartime conditions, understand the key factors behind maintaining energy supply, and realistically evaluate the prospects for recovery and future development.
Major Strikes on the Energy System and Their Consequences
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the enemy has carried out over 30 large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which led to the destruction or severe damage of key generation and distribution facilities.
According to recent data from the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, approximately 10 GW of generating capacity has been destroyed or damaged. Notably, Ukraine entered the 2024–2025 heating season with a generation deficit of 9 GW.
By various estimates, as of May 2024, the country has lost up to 85% of its thermal generation.
In addition, 18 GW of generating capacity remains under occupation. First and foremost, it concerns the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest nuclear power facility in Europe, which provided up to 25% of Ukraine’s total electricity at peak times. Currently, it is in a state of “cold shutdown.”
Other occupied assets include a number of thermal power stations (TPPs), hydroelectric power stations (HPPs), solar power plants, and the country’s largest wind farms.
The total losses in Ukraine’s energy sector are now comparable to the entire electricity generation capacity of developed European countries such as Finland or the Netherlands.
We experienced mass blackouts during 2022–2023, when scheduled rolling outages were introduced to manage electricity demand. However, the country managed to avoid a complete blackout.
Under such conditions, most countries would have probably been on the brink of a full-scale collapse of their energy systems. Yet, through a joint effort of Ukrainian energy professionals, businesses, and international partners, the power system continues to operate. How is this even possible?
How the Energy System Adapted
Despite the extensive damage, the sector continues to recover. Through large-scale repair efforts and the adoption of new technologies, 4 GW of generation capacity has already been restored.
What Helped Maintain the Energy System:
Restoration of Thermal and Hydroelectric Power Stations (TPPs and HPPs) on de-occupied territories.
Import of electricity from the EU – in 2024, Ukraine purchased 4.4 million MWh of electricity.
Active integration of distributed generation, which provides energy for critical infrastructure and businesses.
State support programs for enterprises that implement gas-powered generation and renewable energy sources (RES).
Gas Generation: A Promising Solution or Just a Passing Fad?
One of the solutions to support the energy system has been the development of gas generation. In 2024, 835 MW of capacity was put into operation, and another 900 MW is planned to be added by the end of 2025.
At the same time, businesses are opting for cogeneration units (CGUs) for several reasons.
First of all, the cost of electricity is 4-5 UAH/kWh, which is cheaper than diesel generators. Moreover, CGUs have a high operating resource (up to 60,000 hours), compared to diesel generators (2,000–3,000 hours). Additionally, an important factor is the ability to provide not only electricity but also heat.
However, today, the demand for gas generation has decreased. The main reason is the possible revision of gas tariffs. The preferential price of 16.5 UAH/m³ for electricity producers in the heating cycle and 10.95 UAH/m³ in the condensation cycle could be canceled, which will affect the economic viability of such projects.
Nonetheless, it should be considered that cogeneration is not only a temporary solution but an essential component of the decentralized energy system of the future.
The state needs to create conditions for its further development, particularly in the context of transitioning to hydrogen technologies.
International Support and Investments in Restoration
The role of international partners in supporting Ukraine’s energy sector is vital.
The Ukraine Energy Support Fund has already raised €1 billion and helped restore 2 GW of generation capacity. Under the initiative of Ray of Hope, solar panels and storage systems are being installed for medical institutions.
In addition, Ukraine’s integration into the EU energy market continues: by 2026, the energy systems of Ukraine and Moldova will be fully synchronized with the European network.
Apart from financing restoration, international partners are supporting the modernization of Ukraine’s energy sector, promoting the development of renewable energy sources (RES), energy storage systems, and new technologies.
The Future of Ukrainian Energy: What Will It Look Like?
Despite the losses, Ukraine is confidently moving towards a new energy system model. The energy sector became the primary target for attacks but withstood thanks to the synergy between the state, business, and international partners.
The main short-term tasks are the continued restoration of generation capacities and the modernization of the energy system, creating conditions for the development of distributed generation, and expanding international cooperation for integration with the EU and attracting investments.
At the end of winter, Ukrenergo announced that after the end of the military actions, Ukraine will return to pre-war electricity consumption levels in 15 years, but the energy mix will significantly change.
From my perspective, this is a truthful professional forecast that takes into account not only the country’s ability to restore capacities but also considers dynamics of demand and major global trends.
Key changes expected in the industry include:
Increase in the share of renewable energy – up to 11 GW of solar generation by 2030.
Gradual phase-out of coal generation and development of small modular reactors (SMR).
Development of gas generation and energy storage systems to balance the grid.
Expansion of interconnectors with Europe for bilateral electricity exchange.
Thus, Ukraine is demonstrating that even under the most adverse conditions, it is not only restoring its energy infrastructure but also laying the foundation for sustainable development. As a business, we continue to work on the restoration of damaged energy facilities. Every day, Ukrainian energy workers prove that, despite any challenges, we will still have lights in our homes.
Source:
portal e-b
