The winter season of 2024/2025, compared to the previous two, turned out to be more peaceful. The mass shelling of energy facilities decreased, power outage schedules were not critical, thus, most regions had uninterrupted electricity and heating.
However, does this mean that the energy front has strengthened to the point that there are no more threats? Or are we dealing with a temporary lull, which some experts have named “an energy truce”?
While working on the restoration of infrastructure, I see the situation not from headlines, but from the inside. And it remains challenging. That’s why now is the time not only to take stock but also to conduct a full review of the condition of the energy sector to avoid falling into the trap of illusions.
Fewer outages do not mean fewer problems
Let’s be honest – Ukraine was lucky with the weather. This past winter was mild, whereas the temperature in December and January was much higher than average. This helped reduce the peak load on the system.
Moreover, we managed to significantly increase electricity imports from the EU – during the most difficult periods, we received up to 2.1 GW per day. This is a record figure that helped us avoid serious shortages.
However, it’s necessary to remember: imports are neither stable nor guaranteed. They depend on weather conditions in Europe, the situation in their energy markets, and our infrastructure’s ability to technically accept increasing volumes. Additionally, most of the equipment that keeps the system running is nearing the end of its life cycle.
Currently, the planned maintenance season for nuclear power units is beginning. Taking each unit out of service means a loss of one thousand megawatts in the system. Therefore, a new wave of shortages is already expected in April.
Generation problems have not disappeared
According to government estimates, we have lost about 10 GW of generation capacity, and another 18 GW remain under occupation. These loss figures have remained unchanged for several months, but unfortunately, this does not mean stability, but rather difficulties with recovery.
Throughout 2024, approximately 4 GW of capacity was restored. Part of this volume is the result of small and medium enterprises installing gas cogeneration units.
As a contractor, we ourselves have participated in such projects multiple times. From our own experience, I know that this is not always an easy task, but it is one of the quickest ways to strengthen local resilience.
However, even these units today are not always used to their full capacity. Due to the increase in solar generation, during the day we sometimes face an electricity surplus – and then we have to limit production or “dump” the current into the ground.
This is a paradoxical, but very real problem, which is already being identified as one of the main threats to balancing the system.
Not enough reserves, transformers are in short supply
One of the least noticeable, but most critical issues is the condition of the networks and transformer equipment. URM lost over 50 large transformers during the last year. Manufacturing one takes at least six months, and it costs about 25–30 million UAH.
Ukrainian manufacturers are unable to handle the volume, and international deliveries, even with funding, don’t always meet the necessary deadlines.
That is why the government has recently decided to double the emergency reserve of transformers. The funds for this will be taken from the investment programs of the regional energy companies.
This is a necessary decision, but for now, transformers are still in the planning stages, and the restoration of power lines in communities is being delayed. This is what those who work directly on-site (just like our team) face every day.
International support: without it, the situation would be much worse
Without the help of partners, the situation would be much worse. The Energy Support Fund of Ukraine has already helped restore over 2 GW of capacity by purchasing hundreds of pieces of equipment.
However, the demand for assistance significantly exceeds the Fund’s capabilities – as of early March 2025, the deficit amounted to half a billion dollars.
Thus, Europe is helping, but we also need to work more actively on attracting investments, grants, and direct contracts. Many companies are already ready to participate in modernization projects, but they need a transparent and swift procedure, as well as clear planning.
Water and heating – the next critical points
Energy is not just electricity. It is already clear today that the next critical points are heating and water.
Water losses in some communities exceed 30%, and the centralized water supply system has suffered losses amounting to $12.7 billion. Water utilities have been operating at a loss for years and have accumulated billions in debt.
Without water, there will be neither heating nor normal life.
This means that recovery plans for energy must go beyond just generation. A modernization system for all engineering networks is needed: to achieve this, coalitions must already be built between the state, businesses, and international partners.
Time for action, not self-complacency
I’m not into loud statements, but in this case, I must say: the war is not over, and the energy front is one of the key areas.
The fact that we got through the winter better than expected is the result of immense effort. But now is not the time to relax. It’s telling that authorities at all levels, without waiting for the end of the current heating season, are already preparing for the next one.
Therefore, in addition to strengthening air defense for critical infrastructure, we must:
- Increase local generation and energy efficiency;
- Invest in energy networks and storage;
- Not delay the modernization of water and heating systems.
Ukraine has proven its resilience. Now we must show that we are not only capable of recovering, but also of building something new – resilient, reliable, and modern.
Source:
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