Ukraine is entering its fourth wartime winter, and preparations of the energy system have become one of the key priorities of state policy. Despite large-scale destruction and the ongoing threat of new attacks, the energy sector continues to demonstrate progress in strengthening its resilience.
However, ahead of the cold season, several risks remain that require targeted solutions — ranging from infrastructure protection to the stabilization of financing and the implementation of reforms.
Protection of Infrastructure Under Continuous Attacks
The greatest threat to the energy system remains the daily air strikes, which continue without interruption. Since late March, following a brief so-called “energy truce,” more than 3,000 strikes on energy facilities have been recorded, including both large-scale and localized attacks. Thermal power plants (TPPs), substations, gas infrastructure, as well as equipment at underground gas storage facilities in western regions are being damaged.
The government is responding with direct investments in protection measures. In the Zaporizhzhia region, UAH 630 million has been allocated to strengthen substations. In Kyiv, for example, a three-tier energy resilience system has been established, ranging from the deployment of additional 100 MW gas turbines for critical infrastructure to equipping around 1,000 residential buildings with backup power sources and implementing thermal modernization in 905 buildings.
Grid Balancing and Reserve Capacity
As of September, the energy sector’s readiness is estimated at over 80%. The power system maintains balance and even exports electricity to neighboring countries during periods of low demand.
Ukraine plans to accumulate at least 13.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas in storage facilities. To achieve this, an additional import of more than 4.5 billion cubic meters is required.
The plan also includes the operation of all nine nuclear power plant units located in government-controlled territory, as well as the capability to import up to 2.1 GW of electricity from the European ENTSO-E interconnected power system.
At the same time, the expansion of backup generation capacity continues:
- 334 combined heat and power (CHP) units have been installed, with a total installed capacity of 331.6 MW,
- 272 modular boiler plants, with a combined capacity of 500.3 MW,
- 6 gas turbine units, with a total capacity of 63.5 MW.
Part of this equipment has already been commissioned, including 190 combined heat and power (CHP) units with a total installed capacity of 146.2 MW and 134 modular boiler plants with a combined capacity of 266.2 MW. In the Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) with a total storage capacity of 400 MWh have been commissioned. These systems are capable of supplying electricity to approximately 600,000 households for up to two hours.
Financial Challenges
However, one of the energy sector’s chronic challenges remains the accumulated debt burden. Total outstanding debt owed by district heating utilities exceeds UAH 64 billion, while water utilities have accumulated nearly UAH 2 billion in unpaid electricity bills.
Persistent financing challenges in the renewable energy sector remain a major concern. Outstanding liabilities of the “Guaranteed Buyer” to renewable energy producers exceed UAH 23 billion, while only 63.9% of payments for electricity generated in 2022 have been settled.
These liabilities pose a significant risk to the sector’s financial stability. At the same time, restoring investor confidence will depend directly on the adoption of legislative measures establishing a clear and predictable schedule for the repayment of legacy debt.
Equipment Imports and International Partner Support
International support continues to play a critical role in strengthening Ukraine’s energy sector. In August 2025, Ukraine imported 14,500 tonnes of equipment for power system recovery, with a total value exceeding UAH 6.55 billion. The imports included turbines, generators, utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS), and power inverters.
The European Union has committed more than EUR 3 billion in support to Ukraine’s energy sector, excluding the value of equipment supplied. The development pipeline also includes nearly 4 GW of planned wind generation capacity and approximately 1.5 GW of solar PV capacity to be deployed across residential and commercial consumers.
The United States is supporting the development of Ukraine’s natural gas production, including the exploitation of unconventional resources such as tight gas. In addition, Lithuania has donated a decommissioned thermal power plant in Vilnius to support Ukraine’s energy infrastructure recovery.
Looking Ahead: Investment and Reform
Long-term forecasts estimate that Ukraine will require approximately USD 200 billion in investment by 2040. Priority areas include the modernization of generation assets, expansion and modernization of electricity networks, deployment of energy storage capacity, and the advancement of innovative natural gas extraction technologies.
However, long-term investment will depend on the continued implementation of structural reforms, including further electricity market liberalization, deeper integration with the European energy market, enhanced independence of the national energy regulator, and simplified grid connection procedures for new generation facilities.
Ukraine is entering the winter season with a more resilient, yet still vulnerable, energy system. Adequate natural gas reserves, the operation of all available nuclear power plant units, backup heat generation capacity, and energy storage systems provide a basis for cautious optimism. Nevertheless, accumulated debt, financial imbalances, and the continuing threat of missile strikes remain major risk factors for the sector’s stability.
Ultimately, the true test of resilience will be Ukraine’s ability to successfully withstand the winter while simultaneously laying the foundations for a modernized, decentralized energy system fully integrated into the European energy market.
