Ukraine is entering its fourth wartime winter, and preparing the energy system has become one of the key directions of state policy. Despite massive destruction and the constant threat of new attacks, the energy sector is demonstrating progress in strengthening its resilience.
However, risks remain before the cold season, requiring solutions – from protecting infrastructure to stabilizing financing and implementing reforms.
Protecting facilities during constant attacks
The greatest threat to the energy system remains the daily air strikes, which have not ceased. Since the end of March, following a brief so-called «energy truce», over 3000 attacks on energy facilities have already been recorded – both massed and localized. Thermal Power Plants (TPPs), substations, gas infrastructure and the equipment of gas storage stations in the western regions are being damaged.
The government is responding with direct investments in protection. In Zaporizhzhia region alone, 630 million UAH has been allocated for fortifying substations. In Kyiv, for example, a three-tiered system of energy resilience has been formed: from launching additional gas turbines with a capacity of 100 MW for critical infrastructure to equipping about 1,000 residential buildings with backup power sources and carrying out thermal modernization in 905 buildings.
System balancing and reserves
As of September, the energy sector’s readiness is estimated at over 80%. The power system maintains balance and even exports electricity to neighboring countries during hours of minimum consumption.
Ukraine plans to store at least 13.2 billion cubic meters of gas in its storage facilities. This requires additional imports of over 4.5 billion cubic meters.
The plan also includes the launch of all nine power units at nuclear power plants in controlled territories and the capability to import up to 2.1 GW of electricity from the European ENTSO-E system.
Simultaneously, reserve power sources are being expanded:
- 334 cogeneration units with a total capacity of 331.6 MW have been installed,
- 72 block-modular boiler houses (500.3 MW),
- 6 gas turbine units (63.5 MW).
Part of the equipment is already operational: 190 cogeneration units (146.2 MW) and 134 boiler houses (266.2 MW). In the Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, industrial energy storage systems with a capacity of 400 MWh have been launched, which is enough to power 600,000 homes for two hours.
Financial challenges
However, the accumulated debts in the energy sector remain a chronic problem. Indeed, the total debt of district heating companies exceeds UAH 64 billion and water utilities have an additional debt of about UAH 2 billion for electricity.
Separately, the perennial funding problems in the renewable energy sector should be considered. The debt of the «Guaranteed Buyer» to «green» energy producers alone exceeds UAH 23 billion, and the level of payment for electricity generated in 2022 is only 63.9%.
These amounts create a risk to the stability of the sector. At the same time, restoring investor confidence directly depends on the adoption of legislative decisions regarding a clear schedule for repaying the old debts.
Equipment imports and partner assistance
International assistance continues to play a key role. In August 2025 alone, 14.5 thousand tons of equipment for energy system restoration, valued at over UAH 6.55 billion, was imported into Ukraine. Among it are turbines, generators, large batteries and inverters.
The EU has provided over 3 billion euros in assistance to the Ukrainian energy sector, not including equipment. In the pipeline are almost 4 GW of wind power capacity and about 1.5 GW of solar power in households and businesses.
The United States is supporting the development of gas extraction, including from unconventional deposits (tight gas), while partners from Lithuania have transferred a dismantled thermal power plant from Vilnius to Ukraine.
A look ahead: investment and reforms
Long-term forecasts project a need for approximately $200 billion in investments by 2040. The key priorities are the modernization of generation, grid expansion, the development of energy storage systems and new gas extraction technologies.
However, investments are only possible under the condition of continuing reforms: market liberalization, integration with the European energy market, strengthening the independence of the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NEURC) and simplifying the conditions for connecting new facilities to the grid.
Thus, Ukraine is approaching the winter with an energy system that has been strengthened but remains vulnerable. Gas reserves, the commissioning of nuclear power units, reserve boiler plants and energy storage systems provide grounds for cautious optimism. However, debts, financial imbalances and constant missile threats remain serious risk factors.
True resilience will be determined by the country’s ability to simultaneously weather the winter and lay the foundation for a modernized, decentralized and Europe-integrated energy system.
