Since early October 2025, the energy front has once again become one of the main arenas of confrontation. The aggressor has resumed attacks on infrastructure, deliberately targeting generation facilities and transformer substations in the regions.
In this situation, the question of whether the power system can withstand the winter is no longer rhetorical. It has become a matter of national resilience and everyday survival.
And yet, despite all the risks, most experts remain cautiously optimistic. Let us look at what this optimism is based on and what grounds there are for it.
The Enemy’s Tactics Have Changed
The first thing to note is the change in the pattern of aerial attacks. Unlike in previous years, strikes on energy infrastructure have become more targeted and regular.
The aggressor is not only trying to hit large power generation facilities, but is also deliberately knocking out critical transformer nodes near cities and towns. The objective is clear: to leave entire districts without electricity and create the effect of a grid-level collapse.
Regional 110 kV and 35 kV networks remain particularly vulnerable. In many cases, they still have no protection at all — not even basic gabions, meaning metal mesh structures filled with crushed stone, gravel or other loose materials, or similar simple fortifications capable of reducing the impact of fragmentation damage.
At the same time, third-level protection — full-scale fortification of facilities — is being implemented only selectively. This is understandable: in most cases, the cost of such protection would be several times higher than the cost of the substation itself.
However, there are examples of effective second-level protection, combining basic fortifications with equipment reserves for rapid repair. One such facility withstood six strikes by kamikaze drones and was back in operation the very next day.
The Winter Will Be Difficult, but Not Catastrophic
Despite serious risks, most experts do not expect an energy apocalypse comparable to the blackouts of 2022–2023.
There are several solid reasons for this.
First, Ukrainians have adapted. Many households and businesses now have generators, batteries and inverters. Local outages are no longer perceived as a catastrophe, and response procedures have been well rehearsed.
Second, there has been systematic preparation. Market operators have taken into account the experience of previous years: emergency reserves have been created, spare equipment has been stockpiled, and the logistics of repair crews have become more mobile.
Third, institutional cooperation has improved. The state is working with partners, including G7+ countries, to strengthen protection and ensure rapid response to attacks. This includes gas reserves, air defence capabilities and equipment for substations.
Taken together, these factors create conditions in which local outages or scheduled power cuts are possible, but a complete loss of control over the system is unlikely.
It is also worth noting that since July 27, 2024, Ukraine has had a duty-free regime for the import of certain energy equipment, exempting it from import duties and VAT. This includes electric generators, equipment for solar, wind, hydropower and gas-fired generation, as well as medium- and high-capacity batteries. In total, the list covers more than 20 categories of energy equipment.
Needless to say, this regime has become an additional and effective incentive for Ukrainian companies to invest in the restoration and strengthening of the energy system. However, it is currently set to expire on January 1, 2026.
A logical step for the Government and Parliament would be to extend the duty-free regime beyond the New Year.
New Tools: A Network of Battery Energy Storage Systems
One of the key innovations of this season is the emergence of a network of battery energy storage systems. The project was implemented jointly with the American company Fluence and has become one of the most innovative initiatives launched during the war.
The main parameters of the project are as follows:
- six sites in the capital region and Dnipropetrovsk region;
- total capacity of 200 MW and storage volume of 400 MWh;
- the system can supply up to 600,000 households for two hours in the event of an emergency loss of generation;
- programme cost: USD 140 million;
- the locations and protection system remain classified.
These battery parks operate as buffers that help protect the system during peak losses. Their successful launch in August was an important step towards strengthening energy resilience.
Key Weaknesses: Protection of the Regions
Despite government efforts, the protection of energy facilities in some regions remains critical. Certain high-voltage lines still lack even basic barriers, increasing the risk of widespread damage from shrapnel alone.
Experts emphasize that minimal fortifications could reduce the consequences of attacks. However, as already noted, protecting a single substation can cost three to four times more than the equipment itself. For this reason, the strategy is increasingly shifting towards creating reserves and ensuring rapid recovery.
At the same time, construction of protective structures is ongoing. For example, Zaporizhzhiaoblenergo is set to receive UAH 630 million from the state budget reserve fund specifically for this purpose.
A Balance Between Concern and Preparedness
Ultimately, much will depend on the intensity of attacks, and forecasts should be adjusted as the situation changes from week to week. The winter will be difficult, but Ukraine enters it prepared and experienced.
At the same time, if the enemy again chooses a strategy of massive strikes, significant losses are possible. That is why support from international partners remains crucial, especially in the areas of air defence and rapid supply of equipment.
What This Means for the Country
Despite all the risks and challenges, Ukraine’s power system is entering the winter season better prepared than at any time since the beginning of the full-scale war. Large-scale blackouts, which became a reality in 2022–2023, now appear unlikely. Local outages are expected — short in duration and controlled in scale. They may occur, but they are unlikely to become critical.
Ukrainians already have experience, alternative power sources and clear response procedures. Businesses have adapted by purchasing generators, batteries and inverters. Energy workers, for their part, have built up equipment reserves, improved logistics and introduced new technologies, including a network of battery energy storage systems capable of supporting the grid at critical moments.
The main problem remains the vulnerability of some regional networks and substations. Where even basic protection is absent, strikes can cause serious damage. But even here there is progress: protective structures are being built, and in some cases second-level protection is already proving effective.
The war continues, and the winter will be difficult. But Ukraine has learned to act quickly, in a coordinated manner and at system level. That gives grounds for cautious optimism.
Author: Yevhen Korf, Director of NVP ENERGO-PLUS LLC.
Source: The Page, Енергобізнес, Liga.net.
